The one constant in economic assessments is, unsurprisingly, the ever present unpredictability of the unforeseeable. We recently wrote that inflation would begin to moderate again as the elevated levels caused by last spring’s tariffs roll off the year-to-date numbers this spring. But, alas, an armed conflict emerged literally out of nowhere, sending oil prices soaring and surprising the markets. Even if the conflict proves short lived, the damage to trust and stability in oil, the world’s most relied upon energy source, will take time and effort to repair before it can again be considered reliably stable and affordable for the global economy. Interestingly, the crude oil market has adapted admirably, continuing to meet global demand through a number of alternative sources, though at substantially higher prices.

Continue reading 1st Quarter Update: Surprisingly Good Economic Strength