Last quarter, our technology stocks performed very well due in large part to our emphasis on AI. Nvidia, the dominant supplier of GPU chips used in AI was the driver of those gains and eventually became overvalued and becoming destined to return to reality as is now happening. This recent retreat was instigated in part by two factors. The first is, because of ongoing economic strength and stubborn inflation the Fed began overtly tamping down expectations for any interest rate reductions this year. The effect on the markets was instantaneous. The second is that strong demand in the AI sector that had caused backlogs in order for chips and equipment, has abated along with unrealistic expectations for growth and earnings. Even though the backlogs have diminished, and prices are retreating, the sector remains very strong. AI has the capability to greatly enhance efficiencies in manufacturing, productivity, earnings, and to also increase jobs in nearly every facet of the economy.
Continue reading 1st Quarter Update Summary – Still Waiting for Landing2023 Year End Summary – Goldilocks Economy, Not too Hot, Not too Cold
In recent days, the stock markets have surpassed the previous all-time highs achieved in December of 2021. As the Fed increased short-term interest rates during 2022, the stock market likewise went straight south. It took all of 2023 to regain that lost ground. Now in 2024, the economy appears to be in a Goldilocks condition, not too hot and not too cold. Inflation has subsided to levels that will make the Fed’s target of 2% achievable within coming months. The labor market is as strong as can be with wages rising and unemployment less than 4% for two years running. The economy has not been this productive for 50 years. Help wanted signs are still everywhere. It is becoming apparent that even without new fiscal or monetary stimulus from either Congress or the Fed, as is likely, the previous trillion dollar covid stimulus money is still circulating and accommodating consumer demand that is more than enough to keep powering the economy forward for some time to come.
Continue reading 2023 Year End Summary – Goldilocks Economy, Not too Hot, Not too Cold
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