2nd Quarter Update Summary – Global Inflation, the Fed, and the Fed.

The financial markets since the beginning of this year have been some of the most volatile that we’ve seen in several decades. And not without good reason. The post-pandemic post-stimulus economic rebound together with supply channels straining at the limits to meet the pent-up demand was further complicated by sanctions imposed on Russia. This strain on our supply channels have sent global inflation to the highest levels in decades. Add in the energy disruptions of the Ukraine war, gasoline and energy price increases have taken a big toll on the markets and the economy. Take note, inflation is not just a U.S. domestic phenomenon. It is global. This fact alone tells us this is not necessarily a dollar monetary problem for the Federal Reserve alone to deal with. It involves many factors beyond those mentioned above and which are largely beyond its control. The Fed however, has no choice but to make its best effort to deal with it with the few tools at its disposal.

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Market Meltdown? Foreshadow? Not Likely…

The market meltdown in the previous few days was unmistakably a reaction to sharply rising bond yields which previously were rising slowly if at all in response to Fed rate increases. It was not likely a response to inflationary fears as leading inflation indicators (metals and commodities) were unmoved if not down. Add it all together and present value theory of stock prices required a downward move in prices in response to those bond yields. The consequence? The Fed, now chaired by a Wall Street insider, has no reason to be too aggressive in raising short rates and may even temper its planned sales and reductions of its massive bond portfolio.