Our accounts turned in exceptional performance this year with positive returns while the market indexes were all down for the year. Our largest holding, Amazon, was up 28.4% and contributed substantially to those gains. The merger of our second largest holding Oclaro, was a 24% gain for the year and was completed in December with a cash payout together with Lumenthum stock. Consequently we are starting this year with large cash balances in a tumultuous market environment.

As you are likely aware, there are several important issues (shutdown, Brexit, tariff trade disputes, etc.) that all could significantly Continue reading Year-end Summary 2018

Last quarter, the markets largely stabilized in an upward trend again following a rambunctious first quarter. Amazon continues its upward surge and Oclaro stockholders last week overwhelmingly approved the merger with Lumentum which will be completed in a few months in a distribution of both cash and Lumentum stock. The capital gains and tax effects of the merger are still not clear.

We continue to focus on monetary policy. The Fed continues to raise short-term interest rates but long-term interest rates, largely controlled by market forces, remain quite stable resulting in a flattening of the yield curve. A flat, or worse yet, an inverted yield curve is a proven precursor to Continue reading 2nd Quarter Update Summary

Despite the fact that the markets began the year in verifiably volatile fashion, they wrapped up the first quarter about where they began. Despite this however, our accounts successfully turned in significant gains for the quarter. This was due primarily to our two largest holdings: Amazon was up 19% and Oclaro was up 45% due to a buyout merger offer from Lumentum Holdings, a leading-edge fiber optic provider. The buyout offer of part cash and part Lumentum stock will likely be completed within a few months. We do not yet know the tax effects of this transaction.

The economy appears to be moving forward on firm footing. Although the current economic cycle is one of the longest on record, economic growth cycles normally don’t merely die of old age and recessions usually have specific causes. This growth cycle, with the recent tax cut and approval of the federal budget containing a sizeable deficit, now has these two additional growth stimuli to continue the expansion. Our economy has yet to explore Continue reading 1st Quarter Update Summary

Last year the economy and the markets performed well in part due to the fact that the economy is in the midst of an enduring economic expansion. Now with some new fiscal stimulus in the form of comprehensive tax cuts passed by Congress the expansion received an additional boost to extend its life. This provided there are no unfortunate consequential mis-steps by the Administration and Congress in terms of trade (NAFTA, TPP) or foreign relations (Iran, Korea, China). Although the Republicans have, for now, forsaken their historical misplaced concerns regarding Continue reading 2018 Annual Outlook Summary

Despite uncertainties on the stage of global trade and relations, the main concern for investors remains primarily the activities of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies together with the tax and fiscal plans of the Administration and Congress. The Fed’s plans have been consistent and transparent. The Fed will continue to gradually raise short-term interest rates and will begin to reduce its vast reserve of bond holdings potentially raising longer-term rates. Higher rates are rarely if ever Continue reading 3rd Quarter Update Summary